Photo : BBC/institute for the Study of War
31 August 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #294
War in Ukraine: Day 188
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 30 August, as part of the EU - Ukraine accession process, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy singed two laws agreeing to two conventions given in the association agreement after the parliament adopted the laws. As per the report in Ukrinform the Ukraine parliament adopted the law no.0166 “On Ukraine’s Accession to the Convention on the Common Transit Procedure.” Through this adoption, the European transit rules will now be applicable for Ukraine, with which enterprises can now use “single customs declaration and single guarantee” to transport the goods.
Zelenskyy met IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, where both discussed on the possible explosion risks in Zaporizhzhya power plant. Main stress by the President was on laying of demands by the UN to demilitarize the zone and to urge the Russian military to leave the unit. In his address, Zelenskyy remarked that US’s Himars missiles were helping the force change the course of action through targeting down numerous Russian ammunition depots, and bridges.
Intense fighting has been observed in Kherson between Ukraine and Russian forces, the key reason behind the tight hold on Kherson is due to three reasons. As reported in BBC, the strategic position of Dnipro River, helps to protect the Black Sea ports to continue the grain exports and a closer proximity for Russia and Crimea.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 August, Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov claimed the total Ukraine military loss during the offensive in Nikolayev-Krivoi Rog. He said: “In the past 24 hours, in their effective operations the Russian forces eliminated 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other combat armored vehicles, 8 pickup vehicles with large-caliber machine-guns and over 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen.”
Over the US accusation of importing Iranian combat drones Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series to Russia, has been denied by both Iran and Russia. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the relation between Iran and Russia are becoming dynamic and continue to be. He said: “We’ve seen no indications of any sort of actual delivery and/or purchase of Iranian drones by the Russian Ministry of Defense.”
On 30 August, Gazprom announced its complete shutdown and stop of gas supply from 31 August to 03 September for maintenance. Till now the pipeline has been functioning under reduced capacity, although no serious malfunction is noticeable, the repairs are left to be done to restart the supply.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 30 August, with risk over the Zaporizhzhya power plant heightening, the EU announce on providing five million “anti-radiation tablets” to prevent the body from getting affected by radioactive iodine. Till now people residing within 50 kilometres have been given potassium iodide tablets on a protection basis.
On 29 August, the NATO Military Committee visited Germany, where representatives from Finland and Sweden joined to discuss on the future security challenges, NATO’s deterrence, defence posture and recalled the decisions taken during NATO Madrid Summit.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann during the cooperation discussion with Ukraine, assured on supporting Ukraine from corruption risks especially in the “post-war reconstruction process.” OECD which has been an active partner for Ukraine since 2014 will bring international countries closer in helping with the rebuilding of institutions and strengthen the anticorruption reforms.
On 30 August, first grain shipment from Ukraine was unloaded in Djibouti. The ship, MV Commander contained 23000 tonnes of wheat from Ukraine as food aid to Ethiopia. Given the quantity, it is expected to be a supply for 1.5 million people. According to the WFP spokesperson: “We really need to see increased shipments coming from Ukraine, Russia and others in support of what is a very dire situation today in the Horn of Africa and across the region.”
References
“President signs laws on accession to two conventions within ‘customs visa-free regime’,” Ukrinform, 30 August 2022
Domitila Sagramoso, “Why is Ukraine pushing to recapture Kherson?,” BBC, 30 August 2022
“Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: EU provides anti-radiation tablets to Ukraine,” BBC, 30 August 2022
“Moscow responds to claims it received Iranian drones,” RT, 30 August 2022
“Gazprom confirms Nord Stream shutdown,”RT, 30 August 2022
“Ukraine’s military suffers over 1,200 casualties in failed offensive — Russian top brass,” TASS, 30 August 2022
“NATO Military Committee visits Germany,” nato.int, 30 August 2022
“OECD ready to help Ukraine eliminate corruption risks in post-war reconstruction process,” Ukrinform, 30 August 2022
Catherine Byaruhanga, “Ukraine grain ship with aid for Ethiopia docks in Djibouti,” BBC, 30 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
RUSSIA
Former soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev passes away
On 30 August, former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev passed away at the age of 91. Gorbachev, who took power in 1985 and was largely credited for bringing the Cold War to an end. As the general secretary of the Soviet Communist Party his policies sought to revitalize the Soviet society. His policy of ‘perestroika’ to introduce market-like reforms to the state-run system and ‘glasnost’ promoted openness and criticism in the government. Even though he failed to prevent the collapse of the USSR, his impact on the global order was profound. Gorbachev had been suffering from a long and serious illness and in June 2022, he was admitted with a serious kidney ailment. However, the cause of his death has not been announced. World leaders like Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and EU president Ursula von der Leyen hailed his legacy and expressed their condolences following Gorbachev’s demise. (Matt Murphy & Robert Greenall, “Mikhail Gorbachev: Last Soviet leader dies aged 91,” BBC, 31 August 2022)
THE NETHERLANDS
Workers’ strike destabilizes Dutch rail network
On 30 August, most of the trains in the railway network of the Netherlands were halted due to worker strike. The workers in labor unions who have been affected by the rising inflation and staff shortages and demanded improved working conditions and better pay, called for the strike. It follows the breakdown of negotiations on a new collective labor agreement. As the staff at the railway company Nederlandse Spoorwegen (NS) quit work in the central Netherlands which is a hub for almost all train lines, they successfully destabilized the entire network. AP News reported that the Utrecht Central station, which is Netherland’s biggest rail hub was deserted, but NS said that international trains operated by Thalys and Eurostar were running. (“Almost all Dutch trains halted by strike around Utrecht,” AP News 30 August 2022)
THE UK
Government reaches agreement to revolutionize London’s transport system
On 30 August, UK’s government reached a settlement with the integrated body responsible for London's transport system, Transport for London (TfL). As per the settlement, projects worth EUR 3.6 will be supported, and it includes EUR 1.2 billion of upfront funding. The network will also be protected against the uncertainties arising from the post-pandemic demand and will aim to facilitate projects that revolutionize travel across London. For example, GBP 80 million every year will be given to active travel schemes; driverless trains will be introduced on the London Underground, and walking and cycling infrastructure will be developed to reduce pollution and congestion. The Mayor and the TfL will be working in collaboration to set out sectors in which changes can be implemented and accelerated. The settlement will also ensure that the TfL becomes financially sustainable by 2023. (“Future of London’s transport network secured with government’s multi-billion pound settlement,” gov.uk, 30 August 2022)
UK Government releases proposal on social house rent cap
On 31 August, UK’s government launched a consultation to ask housing tenants and landlords for the most favorable rent cap as a part of the Direction to the Regulator of Social Housing. In the UK, the government controls the rate at which social housing rents can increase in a year, and is currently set at the consumer price index (CPI) rate plus one per cent. According to recent Bank of England forecasts, the potential increase next year will be 11 per cent. As per the proposal, an increase of the rent cap of three per cent, five per cent, or seven percent is being considered. The new cap will help support the most vulnerable households, saving tenants approximately EUR 300 per year. The proposal comes as an addition to other existing support measures like the EUR 37 billion support package, including a EUR 150 council tax rebate, and EUR 400 discount on energy bills. (“Rent cap on social housing to protect millions of tenants from rising cost of living,” gov.uk, 31 August 2022)
REGIONAL
Members of the European Parliament release a new blueprint for EU reform
On 30 August, Euractiv reported on a blueprint for EU reform released by a group of Members of the European Parliament (MEP). The “Federal Europe: Sovereign, Social and Ecological,” manifesto was prepared by the federalist MEPs in the Spinelli group. The blueprint suggests an expansion of the EU’s competencies on health and tax policy and calls to make the European Pillar of Social Rights legally binding. Because of the rise in energy and food prices, it proposes “compensatory transfers” to households and small businesses, and to make the "EU Recovery Plan" permanent. Additionally, the proposal also calls for increased defence and security presence by the EU, including the setting up of the EU military headquarters and the establishment of a 5000-strong Rapid Reaction Force. On the blueprint, a green MEP and the president of the Spinelli group, Daniel Freund said: “We need a strong Europe to solve the big issues of our time: climate, security, protecting democracy and our values. The European Parliament agrees, citizens agree and civil society agrees. Governments need to deliver.” (Benjamin Fox, “EU army and support fund for energy crisis among new treaty reform proposal,” Euractiv, 30 August 2022)
Czech Republic’s EU presidency to push Western Balkan agenda
On 31 August, in an interview for the Euractiv Czech Republic, Czechia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ivana Hlavsova spoke about Czech EU Presidency goals for the Western Balkans. One of the most important terms of the agenda is the freeing visas for Kosovo as it had already met the conditions provided by the EU. Czech Republic also aims to eliminate the several bilateral issues in the West Balkans. Hlavsova mentioned how the plans for the same are already underway, with the unblocking of the dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia. She also referred to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s membership application and said that the country’s problem was unlike that of Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Hlavsova said that onus of achieving at least some of those tasks is now on Bosnia and Herzegovina whose accession talks can proceed only after they make the necessary changes successfully. The European Commission which made an assessment of its readiness in 2019 and given 14 major tasks to start accession talks. (Ondřej Plevák, “Czechia to push for Kosovo visa liberalisation during presidency,” Euractiv, 31 August 2022)